Fastest Growing Midsize Cities in America

Americans have a plethora of options when considering the types of neighborhoods they want to live in. Midsize cities offer the perfect environment for Americans who want a mix of city life and a small-town feel. In this report, AdvisorSmith examines the midsize cities in the United States whose populations are growing and shrinking the most quickly.

We examined the population growth in 226 midsize, incorporated American cities during the five-year period between 2014 and 2019, using population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Our study examined cities with populations between 100,000 and 250,000 residents at the end of the study period. To determine the fastest-growing cities, we calculated the compounded annual growth rate of the population during a five-year period.

We found that the average midsize city had a population growth rate of 0.8% per year among cities included in our analysis. The growth rates ranged from -1.0% up to 6.7% per year in population growth. Cities in the West and South dominated the list of fastest-growing small cities and were the majority of the shrinking cities. Read on to discover the fastest growing and shrinking midsize cities in the United States.

Fastest Growing Midsize Cities in the United States

1. Frisco, TX

Located in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Frisco is the fastest-growing midsize city in our study. In the late 1990s, suburban development in Frisco sparked rapid growth that continued into the 2000s. Frisco has sustained its fast growth rate, and it may be attributed to the city’s economic decisions, including aggressive pursuit of corporate employers, retail development, and entertainment attractions, like professional sports. Frisco is home to five professional sports teams: the Dallas Cowboys Headquarters, the Dallas Stars Headquarters, FC Dallas, the Frisco RoughRiders, the Texas Legends. Additionally, Frisco uses a fractional percent of local sales tax to fund the Frisco Economic Development Corporation, further contributing to spurring the regional economy. From 2014 to 2019, the population grew from 144,965 residents to 200,490 residents, for an annualized growth rate of 6.7%.

2. Meridian, ID

Meridian is located in Ada County, Idaho and is considered the state’s fastest-growing city. The annual growth rate of the city between 2014 and 2019 was 5.1% as the population grew from 89,174 residents to 114,161 residents. New residents are attracted to the city’s abundance of natural attractions as the city’s parks and recreation department manages 17 public parks. Blue Cross of Idaho, Citigroup, and Scentsy are a few of the major companies that are helping to drive the economy in Meridian.

3. McKinney, TX

A northeastern city in Texas, McKinney is situated in Collin County, Texas. The prominent public school system and abundance of employers such as Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems make the city an attractive place to live. The population of McKinney increased from 157,143 residents to 199,177 residents in the span of five years, from 2014 to 2019. The annual growth rate of the city during this time period was 4.9%.

4. Murfreesboro, TN

The largest suburb in Nashville, Murfreesboro is located in Rutherford County of central Tennessee. The city is home to Middle Tennessee State University, the second-largest university in the state. Music plays a large role in the city’s community as several music-oriented events occur in Murfreesboro annually such as the Main Street Jazzfest. From 2014 to 2019, Murfreesboro’s population grew from 120,808 residents to 146,900 residents. The annual growth rate for the city during this time period was 4.0%.

5. Bend, OR

Located in Deschutes County, Oregon, Bend is central Oregon’s largest city. The city is attractive to both its residents and visitors due to the abundance of natural attractions such as skiing, mountain biking, fishing, camping, and much more. Tourism serves as one of Bend’s largest economic sectors as the Cascade Lakes and Mount Bachelor ski resort draws in tourists from all over the world. The population of the city increased from 83,526 residents in 2014 to 100,421 residents in 2019, for an annualized growth rate of 3.8%.

Below is a list of the 50 fastest-growing midsize cities in the United States during 2014-2019. Texas led the study with 14 cities in the top 50, and the rest of the list was dominated by cities in California, Oregon, Arizona, and Florida. Other states that made the top 50 were South Dakota, North Carolina, Idaho, Colorado, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Carolina, Nevada, Indiana, and Washington. No midsize northeastern cities appeared in the top 50 list. Most of the top 40 midsize cities were located in the suburbs of metropolitan areas in southern and western states.

Rank	City	State	Population (2014)	Population (2019)	Growth Rate 2014-2019
1	Frisco	TX	144,965	200,490	6.7%
2	Meridian	ID	89,174	114,161	5.1%
3	McKinney	TX	157,143	199,177	4.9%
4	Murfreesboro	TN	120,808	146,900	4.0%
5	Bend	OR	83,526	100,421	3.8%
6	Round Rock	TX	112,665	133,372	3.4%
7	Port St. Lucie	FL	172,669	201,846	3.2%
8	Cape Coral	FL	168,365	194,495	2.9%
9	Pearland	TX	106,027	122,460	2.9%
10	Chico	CA	89,491	103,301	2.9%
11	League City	TX	94,121	107,536	2.7%
12	College Station	TX	103,469	117,911	2.6%
13	Midland	TX	128,352	146,038	2.6%
14	Clovis	CA	101,904	114,584	2.4%
15	Allen	TX	94,215	105,623	2.3%
16	Edinburg	TX	90,342	101,170	2.3%
17	Peoria	AZ	157,770	175,961	2.2%
18	Tempe	AZ	175,636	195,805	2.2%
19	Richardson	TX	109,134	121,323	2.1%
20	Sparks	NV	94,561	105,006	2.1%
21	Surprise	AZ	127,880	141,664	2.1%
22	Denton	TX	128,217	141,541	2.0%
23	Carmel	IN	91,569	101,068	2.0%
24	Killeen	TX	137,589	151,666	2.0%
25	Roseville	CA	128,397	141,500	2.0%
26	Ontario	CA	168,097	185,010	1.9%
27	Sioux Falls	SD	167,050	183,793	1.9%
28	Lakeland	FL	102,034	112,136	1.9%
29	Greeley	CO	99,055	108,649	1.9%
30	Cary	NC	155,439	170,282	1.8%
31	Jurupa Valley	CA	100,080	109,527	1.8%
32	Hillsboro	OR	99,827	109,128	1.8%
33	Thornton	CO	129,479	141,464	1.8%
34	Wilmington	NC	113,320	123,744	1.8%
35	Spokane Valley	WA	92,569	101,060	1.8%
36	Palm Bay	FL	106,237	115,552	1.7%
37	Bellevue	WA	136,275	148,164	1.7%
38	Fort Collins	CO	156,804	170,243	1.7%
39	Salem	OR	160,675	174,365	1.6%
40	Carrollton	TX	128,349	139,248	1.6%
41	Clarksville	TN	145,899	158,146	1.6%
42	North Charleston	SC	106,754	115,382	1.6%
43	Sandy Springs	GA	101,371	109,452	1.5%
44	Odessa	TX	114,430	123,334	1.5%
45	Fargo	ND	115,715	124,662	1.5%
46	Eugene	OR	160,260	172,622	1.5%
47	Murrieta	CA	108,037	116,223	1.5%
48	Elk Grove	CA	162,701	174,775	1.4%
49	West Palm Beach	FL	104,314	111,955	1.4%
50	Waco	TX	129,860	139,236	1.4%

Fastest Shrinking Midsize Cities in the United States

The table below shows 50 midsize cities in the United States that were shrinking the fastest from 2014-2019. California was at the top of the list with 15 cities. Southern and western states each had 16 cities in the top 50, while there were 11 cities from the Midwest and only seven in the Northeast. Although many cities on the list show signs of economic decline, some of the cities on the list are very prosperous. Wealthy, midsize cities were also included on the list such as Thousand Oaks in California. The data displays how economic growth is not always directly correlated to population growth, as the population dwindles in these types of cities due to poor housing affordability and low levels of construction of new housing.

Rank	City	State	Population (2014)	Population (2019)	Growth Rate 2014-2019
1	Jackson	MS	172,014	160,628	-1.4%
2	Shreveport	LA	198,259	187,112	-1.2%
3	Peoria	IL	115,955	110,417	-1.0%
4	Baton Rouge	LA	227,851	220,236	-0.7%
5	Springfield	IL	117,489	114,230	-0.6%
6	Rockford	IL	149,378	145,609	-0.5%
7	Mesquite	TX	144,508	140,937	-0.5%
8	Inglewood	CA	110,840	108,151	-0.5%
9	Columbus	GA	200,563	195,769	-0.5%
10	Bridgeport	CT	147,870	144,399	-0.5%
11	Hampton	VA	137,680	134,510	-0.5%
12	Torrance	CA	146,845	143,592	-0.4%
13	West Covina	CA	107,447	105,101	-0.4%
14	Santa Rosa	CA	180,585	176,753	-0.4%
15	Norwalk	CA	106,189	103,949	-0.4%
16	Pasadena	TX	154,447	151,227	-0.4%
17	Hartford	CT	124,665	122,105	-0.4%
18	Mobile	AL	192,582	188,720	-0.4%
19	Burbank	CA	104,405	102,511	-0.4%
20	Evansville	IN	120,153	117,979	-0.4%
21	Waterbury	CT	109,524	107,568	-0.4%
22	Downey	CA	113,091	111,126	-0.3%
23	Rochester	NY	209,329	205,695	-0.3%
24	Topeka	KS	127,489	125,310	-0.3%
25	Garden Grove	CA	174,423	171,644	-0.3%
26	Norfolk	VA	246,576	242,742	-0.3%
27	Montgomery	AL	201,435	198,525	-0.3%
28	Thousand Oaks	CA	128,636	126,813	-0.3%
29	Syracuse	NY	144,331	142,327	-0.3%
30	Lancaster	CA	159,634	157,601	-0.3%
31	Warren	MI	135,666	133,943	-0.3%
32	Newport News	VA	181,522	179,225	-0.3%
33	Aurora	IL	200,189	197,757	-0.2%
34	Palmdale	CA	156,770	155,079	-0.2%
35	Birmingham	AL	211,651	209,403	-0.2%
36	Davenport	IA	102,471	101,590	-0.2%
37	Miami Gardens	FL	110,943	110,001	-0.2%
38	Beaumont	TX	117,812	116,825	-0.2%
39	Macon	GA	154,329	153,159	-0.2%
40	Akron	OH	199,008	197,597	-0.1%
41	Independence	MO	117,505	116,672	-0.1%
42	Gresham	OR	110,029	109,381	-0.1%
43	Orange	CA	139,424	138,669	-0.1%
44	Dayton	OH	141,117	140,407	-0.1%
45	Wichita Falls	TX	105,208	104,683	-0.1%
46	Springfield	MA	154,376	153,606	-0.1%
47	Simi Valley	CA	126,239	125,613	-0.1%
48	Paterson	NJ	145,911	145,233	-0.1%
49	Ventura	CA	109,535	109,106	-0.1%
50	Pomona	CA	152,225	151,691	-0.1%

Methodology

In this study, we analyzed the population growth rates of midsize cities in the United States. Cities selected for this analysis had a minimum population of 100,000 and a maximum population of 250,000 in the year 2019. This study measured the compounded annual growth rate of city populations between 2014 through 2019 based upon population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

After calculating the compounded annual growth rate of the population for each city, we ranked the cities based upon their growth rates and found the top 50 midsize cities that are growing the most quickly and the 50 midsize cities that are shrinking the fastest.

Sources

1. U.S. Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2010-2019